2015 is a year of major political decisions. Among other things, the international community has the opportunity to agree a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which will apply to ONE world – to the Global South and the Global North alike. These and other discussions are taking place at a time when the cooperative multilateralism practised since the 1990s is undergoing radical change, not least due to the rise of new economic powers. At the same time, the world increasingly appears to be a place of discord, with a resurgence of geopolitical conflicts and the strengthening of terrorist movements. Global Trends 2015 analyses these and other current developments in the context of long-term trends and identifies options for policy-making.

With Global Trends 2015, the Development and Peace Foundation (sef:) and the Institute for Development and Peace (INEF) continue their series of trend analyses in the fields of peace and security, world economy and society, and sustainable development, which they launched in 1991. As with previous editions, this standard work is based on a wealth of statistical data and information from a variety of international sources and presents its findings in a clear and accessible format. For Global Trends 2015, we have gained a further institutional co-publisher, the Käte Hamburger Kolleg/Centre for Global Cooperation Research (KHK), an interdisciplinary research institute at the University of Duisburg-Essen. An unabridged English translation of Global Trends will be available as an online publication for the first time.

Content

Preface
Federal Foreign Minister Dr Frank-Walter Steinmeier

Editors’ Acknowledgements

Ir/responsibility and Cooperation in World Society: Current Trends and Long-Term Outlooks
Michele Roth, Cornelia Ulbert

Peace and Security

Liberal Peace in Crisis: Armed Conflict in a Contested World Order
Tobias Debiel, Patricia Rinck

Spotlight
The Rise of “Islamic State”
Jochen Hippler

Global Trends of Peace Negotiations and Conflict Mediation
Isak Svensson, Monika Onken

Spotlight
Territorial Reorganization – An International Challenge
Christian Tomuschat

From Quantitative to Qualitative Arms Control: The Challenges of Modern Weapons Development
Niklas Schornig

Spotlight
In Troubled Waters: The International Criminal Court (ICC)
Wenke Bruckner, Angar Verma

Protest and Resistance Movements in the 21st Century
Felix S. Bethke

Spotlight
The Ambivalent Role of Middle Classes in Transformation Conflicts
Marc Saxer

World Society

The Post-2015 Consultations: Fig Leaf Policy or Test Bed for Innovation?
Magdalena Bexell

Spotlight
Why We Should Give the Future a Seat at the Negotiating Table: Future Generations in the Post-2015 Agenda
Maja Gopel

World Society under Surveillance: Intelligence Networks and the Threat
to Privacy
Peter Gill

Fragmented World Society: Inequality and Its Effects
Michael Dauderstädt

Spotlight
Migration and development: the role of temporary and circular migration
Steffen Angenendt

When the Local Meets the International: From Resilience to Global Governance
Roger Mac Ginty, Malgorzata Polanska

Spotlight
Cultures of Humanitarianism
Volker M. Heins, Christine Unrau

World Economy and Sustainability

The Changed Landscape of Global Trade: Between Global Multilateralism, Plurilateralism, and Regionalism
Noemi Gal-Or

Global Energy Markets in Transition: Implications for Geopolitics, Economy and Environment
Kirsten Westphal, Susanne Dröge

Spotlight
Cities – Spaces of Risk or Opportunities for Active Changes? Dynamic Responses to the Challenges of Climate Change
Kerstin Krellenberg

Transnational Production and the Future of Decent Work
Christian Scheper

Spotlight
Youth Unemployment: A Global Challenge
Steffen Angenendt, Silvia Popp

A Road Map for Sustainable Production and Consumption: Trends and Responsibilities
Christa Liedtke, Carolin Baedeker, Lisa Marie Borrelli

Spotlight
We Can’t Eat GDP: Global Trends on Alternative Indicators
Lorenzo Fioramonti

Annex

Abbreviations

Figures and Tables

Editors and Contributors

Dr Steffen Angenendt
Born in 1958, studied economics and political science at the Universities of Cologne and Berlin; Senior Associate of the »Global Issues« Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin

Dr Carolin Baedeker
Born in 1969, studied geography at the University of Cologne; Co-Director of the Research Group 4 »Sustainable Production and Consumption«, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

Dr Felix S. Bethke
Born in 1980, studied political science at the University of Frankfurt; Post-Doc Fellow at the Käte Hamburger Kolleg/Centre for Global Cooperation Research, University of Duisburg-Essen

Dr Magdalena Bexell
Born in 1974, studied political science at Lund University and UC Berkeley; Senior Lecturer and Researcher in political science, international relations and development studies, Lund University

Lisa Marie Borrelli
Born in 1988, studied social sciences, European studies and communication for development at the Universities of Cologne and Malmö; PhD-Student at the Institute of Sociology, University of Berne

Wenke Brückner
Born in 1989, studied law at the University of Cologne; PhD Candidate and Research Assistant at the Institute for International Peace and Security Law, University of Cologne

Dr Michael Dauderstädt
Born in 1947, studied mathematics, economics and development policy at the RWTH Aachen, ENSAE Paris and GDI/DIE Berlin; CEO of the publisher J.H.W. Dietz, Bonn

Dr Susanne Dröge
Born in 1967, studied economics at the Free University Berlin and the University of Warwick; Head of the »Global Issues« Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin

Professor Lorenzo Fioramonti
Born in 1977, studied philosophy, economics and political science at the Universities of Rome and Siena; Professor of Political Economy and Director of the Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation, University of Pretoria

Professor Noemi Gal-Or
Born in 1951, studied political science, French literature and linguistics at the University of Tel Aviv, international relations and international law at the IUHEI in Geneva and law at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver; Professor of Politics and International Law, Kwantlen Polytechnic University; lawyer practicing Canadian and international law

Dr Peter Gill
Born in 1947, studied government and politics at the Universities of London and Essex; Honorary Senior Research Fellow at the University of Liverpool

Dr Maja Göpel
Born in 1976, studied media, development and consulting, international relations and global political economics at the Universities of Siegen, Sevilla and Fribourg; Director of the »Berlin Office« of the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

Professor Volker M. Heins
Born in 1957, studied political science, philosophy and romance studies at the Universities of Bonn, Frankfurt and Florence; Head of the research unit »Interculturality« of the Institute for Advanced Study in the Humanities (KWI), Essen; Research Group Leader at the Käte Hamburger Kolleg/Centre for Global Cooperation Research, University of Duisburg-Essen; Associate Professor of Political Science, Ruhr-University Bochum

PD Dr Jochen Hippler
Born in 1955, studied social sciences at the Universities of Duisburg and Hamburg; Senior Researcher at the Institute for Development and Peace (INEF), University of Duisburg-Essen

Dr Kerstin Krellenberg
Born in 1977, studied environmental science at the University of Vechta; Senior Researcher at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Leipzig

Professor Christa Liedtke
Born in 1964, studied biology and protestant theology at the Universities of Essen and Bonn; Visiting Professor at the Folkwang University of Arts, Essen; Director of the Research Group »Sustainable Production and Consumption«, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

Professor Roger Mac Ginty
Born in 1970, studied political science and philosophy at the universities of Belfast and Lancaster; Professor of Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Manchester

Monika Onken
Born in 1987, studied international development studies and peace and conflict studies at the Universities of Wageningen and Uppsala; Research Assistant at the National Centre of Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Otago

Malgorzata Polanska
Born in 1983, studied political science, international relations and Latin American studies in Poland, Denmark and Mexico; PhD student at the Humanitarian and Conflict Response Institute,University of Manchester

Silvia Popp
Born in 1983; studied political science and economics at the Universities of Potsdam and Bergen; Research Associate of the »Global Issues« Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin

Patricia Rinck
Born in 1987, studied European studies at the University of Magdeburg and Brunel University West London and international relations and development policy at the University of Duisburg-Essen; Researcher at the Käte Hamburger Kolleg/Centre for Global Cooperation Research, University of Duisburg-Essen

Marc Saxer
Born in 1973, studied law and political science at the Universities of Mannheim, Massachusetts, Hamburg and Berlin; Head of the Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation in New-Delhi Christian Scheper
Born in 1980, studied political science and international relations at the Universities of Münster, Twente, and Exeter; Researcher at the Institute for Development and Peace (INEF), University of Duisburg-Essen

Dr Niklas Schörnig
Born in 1972, studied political science and economics at the Goethe-University Frankfurt; Senior Researcher at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF)

Dr Isak Svensson
Born in 1974, studied peace and conflict research at Uppsala University; Associate Professor at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Professor Christian Tomuschat
Born in 1936, studied law at the Universities of Heidelberg and Montpellier; Professor emeritus of Public Law at Humboldt University Berlin; President of the OSCE Court of Conciliation and Arbitration

Christine Unrau
Born in 1983, studied Latin American studies at the University of Cologne; Research Assistant in the Research Unit 2 »Global Cultural Conflicts and Transcultural Cooperation« at the Käte Hamburger Kolleg/Centre for Global Cooperation Research, University of Duisburg-Essen

Angar Verma
Born in 1987, studied law at the Universities of Bonn and Cologne; PhD Candidate and Research Assistant at the Institute for International Peace and Security Law, University of Cologne

Dr Kirsten Westphal
Born in 1969, studied political science; Senior Associate of the »Global Issues« Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin